The largest part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region could expect normal to above-normal rainfall between October and December 2024, according to a recent statement by the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-29). The forum members met from 26 to 28 August in Harare, Zimbabwe.
Normal to above-normal rains were also forecasted for the period between January and March 2025 for most of the region except for, among others, the south-western fringes of South Africa, north-western Angola, northern Zambia, northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.
The temperature outlook covering the period from October 2024 to January 2025 indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures in most parts of the SADC region.
“The SARCOF-29 statement shows an increased probability of normal to above-normal conditions in the period from October 2024 to March 2025 in the central part of the SADC region. This includes Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and central Mozambique. Increased probability of normal to below-normal conditions during the October 2024 to December 2024 period is predicted for south-western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and north-east South Africa,” the SARCOF-29 report read.
There is a probability of the expansion of below-normal rainfall to cover northern DRC and northern Tanzania through the December 2024 to February 2025 period.
According to the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre, the prospect of good rainfall in 2024-25 is a welcome development for the region’s food and nutrition security “as Southern Africa is still grappling with the impact of the El Nino-induced drought and the flooding that occurred in the 2023-24 season”.
The centre said in a statement that the improved prospects of rain would also boost the output of hydropower stations in the region.
Countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe had been forced to cut down on hydropower production due to low water levels as a result of last season’s drought.
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